Analysis of Worldwide Time-Series Data Reveals Some Universal Patterns of Evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic

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dc.citation.rankM21
dc.citation.spage936618
dc.citation.volume10
dc.contributor.authorMitrović Dankulov, Marija
dc.contributor.authorTadić, Bosiljka
dc.contributor.authorMelnik, Roderick
dc.date.accessioned2023-05-16T12:48:42Z
dc.date.available2023-05-16T12:48:42Z
dc.date.issued2022-07-22
dc.description.abstractPredicting the evolution of the current epidemic depends significantly on understanding the nature of the underlying stochastic processes. To unravel the global features of these processes, we analyse the world data of SARS-CoV-2 infection events, scrutinising two 8-month periods associated with the epidemic’s outbreak and initial immunisation phase. Based on the correlation-network mapping, K-means clustering, and multifractal time series analysis, our results reveal several universal patterns of infection dynamics, suggesting potential predominant drivers of the pandemic. More precisely, the Laplacian eigenvectors localisation has revealed robust communities of different countries and regions that break into clusters according to similar profiles of infection fluctuations. Apart from quantitative measures, the immunisation phase differs significantly from the epidemic outbreak by the countries and regions constituting each cluster. While the similarity grouping possesses some regional components, the appearance of large clusters spanning different geographic locations is persevering. Furthermore, characteristic cyclic trends are related to these clusters; they dominate large temporal fluctuations of infection evolution, which are prominent in the immunisation phase. Meanwhile, persistent fluctuations around the local trend occur in intervals smaller than 14 days. These results provide a basis for further research into the interplay between biological and social factors as the primary cause of infection cycles and a better understanding of the impact of socio-economical and environmental factors at different phases of the pandemic.
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fphy.2022.936618
dc.identifier.issn2296-424X
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85134191796
dc.identifier.urihttps://pub.ipb.ac.rs/handle/123456789/33
dc.identifier.wos000825114100001
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherFrontiers Media S.A.
dc.relation.ispartofFrontiers in Physics
dc.relation.ispartofabbrFront. Phys.
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.titleAnalysis of Worldwide Time-Series Data Reveals Some Universal Patterns of Evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic
dc.typejournal-article
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion
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